We’re all well aware of how important the run to the first split is and never is it more vital than in a TAB Melbourne Cup final.
The average Cup winning first split (past 10 years) is 5.05, the average of last Friday’s heat winners was 5.06.
It’s one thing to compare all of their first splits from the heats but some achieve it in different ways. The numbers only tell half the story as their habits are the reality – reaction time, acceleration and the direction of which they do it.
Thanks to the extensive head on vision used at the heats we get a great guide of what we might be able to expect from each finalist.
1. Zipping Sullivan
His heat: He jumped from box 5 and immediately wanted to run towards the rail. He rode a bump on his inside and handled it well though hard to judge if it cost him time.
The final: With box 1 he will have a free ticket to the inside. He doesn’t always begin as well as he did in his heat, his Prelude was an example of that.
Below: Zipping Sullivan (5) set a first split of 5.06 in his heat
2. Simon Told Helen
His heat: He began fairly from box 4 and as he does every week accelerated hard soon after. The head on vision highlighted the grief he got from Sweet Demi (1) but he gave it back with force. His tenacity and the pressure he puts on others is immense and it was a great example of that.
The final: We’re likely to see much of the same as it’s his bread and butter. No matter how Zipping Sullivan begins he will soon feel the wrath of the beast Simon Told Helen. No greyhound carries as much speed into the first turn than him.
Below: Simon Told (4) forces his way with a split of 5.05 in his heat
3. Tough Tears
His heat: Began beautifully and straight away wanted to get inside and behind the line of the lure. By leading he avoided Aussie Secret (1) wanting to move wide. His split of 5.05 is the fastest he’s gone at both Victorian metro tracks eclipsing the 5.08 he set in his Prelude.
The final: Only the same is going to have him in contention. He’s proven he can begin really well and that will be crucial as he won’t have the acceleration to match most of his opposition. He’s a genuine 600m type and has strength on his side.
Below: Tough Tears (4) sets a first split of 5.05 in his heat
4. Lucy’s Milo
His heat: Began well and sat behind the line of the lure. He led with a first split of 5.13 which was the slowest of the heats and at this stage of his career probably the best he’s going to go. Box 1 was an advantage as his record from it is strong.
The final: He’s not going to match the pace of the others. Box 4 is OK as he won’t vere wide and only angle towards the inside. There’s going to be so much heat around him I can’t see how he can settle in a good spot.
Below: Lucy’s Milo (1) sets a first split of 5.13 in his heat
5. Hard Style Rico
His heat: Box 8 is his draw and he used it perfectly to sit outside of Gladioli Bale and get the better of her late. Although his best work comes from wide draws we saw he’s not desperate to be out there it just gives him room to accelerate on a true line.
The final: Recently he’s been very consistent out of the boxes and here has the advantage of greyhounds on his inner who will only angle inside. It seems he will have room to get going however no mistake can be afforded with the brigade on his outer.
Below: Hard Style Rico (8) sets a first split of 5.05 in his heat
6. Tommy Shelby
His heat: He was almost last off the green mat but then showed good acceleration to push up and take a gap that presented itself at the beam, after that his mid-race pace was elite. A mistake at box rise but his recovery was great.
The final: He can’t afford to get away in the same fashion he has in his past two, in a field like this his race would be over. Box 6 isn’t ideal but his running line is consistent and the upside of the draw. He must bounce back and begin well.
Below: Tommy Shelby (3) sets a first split of 5.08
7. Shima Shine (pictured)
His heat: Began fairly well then took off as we know he does. His running line was true and without pressure around him locked away his spot in the final a few strides in.
The final: Box 7 would typically be OK but he’s got the best sprinters in Australia around him. He must nail the jump to get the head start on them. Without doubt can meet the numbers required to win it, he just needs to do it on the biggest stage there is.
Below: Shima Shine (3) sets a first split of 5.04
8. Tiggerlong Tonk
His heat: There was room to take advantage of and he did exactly that. He ran a very straight line and went on to get the job done in typical Tiggerlong Tonk time. We didn’t learn much outside of that he’s ready to rumble.
The final: The draw isn’t horrendous, he will hold his line and set a fast early split but the problem is there could be at least four others under him setting the same sort of numbers. It will be hard to cross so he’s got to hook around them, if there’s opportunity.
Below: Tiggerlong Tonk (4) cruises to a 5.04 first split in his heat
It’s hard to believe that these times we’re speaking of, with 0.1 of a second separating them, can have such a significant impact on winning the most prestigious greyhound race the world has to offer.
It doesn’t seem a race where a swooper will charge late meaning that 72m to the first split beam is where the race is likely to be decided.
All eight deserve their spot, but only one can be declared winner of the world’s greatest greyhound race.
There’s $1M in prize money across Friday’s 12 race card, the TAB Melbourne Cup highlights and is supported by a really strong card. TAB are projecting a $1M quaddie pool.
Click here for Friday’s fields
Click here for heats recap
